An anonomous comrade who has lived in The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) for a number of years, gives us their analysis of the balance of power with Turkey under a second Trump presidency. We Hope it provides a useful overview or starting point for research for those who are worried that Trump will green light a fourth round of Turkish invasion in AANES. - Organise
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Quick post election analysis, in case anyone is a bit worried:
Last time Erdoğan managed to get a temporary withdrawal of US troops by threatening Trump financially, but he couldn't get it to last more than a few months because other parts of the administration objected. Probably he has the same amount of power and can do the same again, but he won't want to do this until the situation is good for an invasion.
This situation would mean:
Now the çeta are divided and depleted and a lot of them have died in Turkish wars in other parts of the world. And the friends have built an impressive network of fortifications, many of which will require high quality troops to clear. This means moving more slowly, taking more Turkish casualties, and generally paying a higher price for ground taken.
Military victory for us will be hard with Turkish dominance of the air, but holding them off with minimal ground lost until a diplomatic solution is found is possible. Especially since Russia is always looking to expand their local influence and are currently cross about Turkish support for Ukraine
So bad things, but not yet, and not like last time
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